Description

This analysis provides a forecast of MSTR prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2026-01-18 116.149172 132.896530 151.726851 174.566754 201.652059 232.907761 271.938292
2026-01-25 93.466080 114.604850 140.454018 174.742711 219.563467 276.904716 357.030133
2026-02-01 78.040135 100.508319 129.692561 171.048360 229.248035 309.945716 433.417721
2026-02-08 67.165511 89.869833 120.791660 166.988888 236.045186 338.464848 507.890358
2026-02-15 59.113892 81.626195 113.517902 163.340016 241.778167 365.183271 584.137081
2026-02-22 56.212625 80.100166 115.308256 172.878506 268.528264 428.705897 735.310526
2026-03-01 51.974699 75.993979 112.572602 174.709121 282.773419 473.774009 864.760564
2026-03-08 48.500872 72.598016 110.410895 176.956257 297.768241 522.595509 1013.979547
2026-03-15 45.034159 68.809476 107.115392 176.686650 307.984166 564.139439 1159.343790
2026-03-22 43.751055 68.377711 109.230458 186.087001 337.638702 649.801787 1429.210345
2026-03-29 42.288049 67.470293 110.379789 193.789525 365.193674 737.055709 1733.144759
2026-04-05 40.724406 66.219142 110.749317 199.989361 390.658676 825.414454 2073.024339
2026-04-12 38.637995 63.944266 109.179295 202.477962 409.370518 904.412703 2425.301801
2026-04-19 36.413628 61.228133 106.522278 202.429719 422.533971 973.500199 2780.275839
2026-04-26 33.883778 57.735761 102.044282 197.972153 424.670094 1014.724630 3064.192622
2026-05-03 31.566964 54.448575 97.648686 193.126756 425.042514 1051.422603 3351.148939
2026-05-10 29.534092 51.533344 93.710703 188.782743 425.895981 1089.785365 3664.836944
2026-05-17 29.280562 51.993472 96.570702 200.138966 469.254527 1266.660721 4645.410988
2026-05-24 28.139543 50.626313 95.543131 202.320983 488.632857 1375.217086 5406.204643
2026-05-31 27.128224 49.435129 94.767629 205.000686 509.978722 1497.348113 6325.581838
2026-06-07 25.936014 47.788833 92.868732 204.679110 522.687305 1594.023089 7193.010310
2026-06-14 25.746166 48.174484 95.418331 215.901461 572.284853 1843.716863 9174.486582
2026-06-21 25.382839 48.167243 97.090544 225.112106 617.964335 2098.137426 11496.628320